In the Green | Issue #1: Let’s Kick This Off
Welcome to In the Green.
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Each Thursday, you’ll get:
Weekend betting picks & analysis
Notes on line movement & futures value
Strategy lessons, recaps, & resources to improve your process
We're just getting warmed up as football season approaches. Get ready to live in the green.
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🎧This Week’s Podcast: 2025 SEC Betting Preview
In this episode of Good Bets Good Times, we dig into the SEC preseason favorites and betting outlook for 2025. Here's what we cover:
Texas is favored to win the SEC but has challenges ahead
Georgia remains a strong contender despite a “down year”
Alabama is looking to bounce back after a disappointing season
LSU faces a brutal schedule
Oklahoma is a live dark horse with real upside
🎙️Listen Now below or wherever you get your podcasts
🔒Futures Bets We’ve Locked In So Far
A quick peek at some of the CFB and NFL futures already on our card:
Cincinnati Bengals: Under 10.5 wins (-145)
Locked this in last month, and 10.5s have disappeared across the market. At 9.5, the edge shrinks, but our projection of 9.3 wins still gives a slight lean. The offense will be electric, but concerns on the O-line and defense make this a sharp early play. Still—never count out Burrow dragging this team to 10 wins.
Detroit Lions: Under 10.5 wins (-110)
Both coordinators are gone, including OC Ben Johnson (now with the Bears). We project 9.9 wins and see this as a prime sell-high spot. Market consensus is -135, but -110s are still out there—shop around.
Virginia Tech: Over 6.5 wins (+145) & +4500 to win ACC (0.5 unit)
They won 6 games last year, lost 5 of 6 by one score, and Kyron Drones missed 4 games. With a healthy Drones and new coordinators, we like this Hokies team. We grabbed +145 on the win total (now around +105) and took a small stab at the ACC title at +4500. We project true odds closer to +2950. Are they likely to win it? Probably not—but if they’re in the hunt, we’ll have a great hedging opportunity late.
Oklahoma: Over 6.5 wins (-170)
We project the Sooners at 7 wins, with true odds around -172. If you can find -170 or better, it’s a play. They should start 5-0 before the SEC gauntlet begins. With improved offense and a Venables-led defense, this team’s floor is 7 wins, and ceiling might surprise people.
I track every bet I place with rational in real time on the Action Network App:
🧢 Coach’s Corner: Bankroll Management
Huddle up, team. Before you start firing bets this season, let’s talk about the one thing that separates sharps from the weekend warriors: bankroll discipline.
Ask yourself:
What’s your total bankroll?
What % are you risking per bet?
Are you sticking to unit sizes or chasing losses?
What’s a Bankroll?
Your bankroll is the total amount of money you’ve set aside for betting—not your rent, not your vacation fund. Just what you’re comfortable risking.
Managing it wisely means:
Betting consistent unit sizes (1–2% of bankroll is a common range)
Avoiding emotional bets or doubling down after a loss
Giving yourself the runway to survive variance and stay in the game for the long haul.
This comes straight from Chapter 4 of the NT Sports Beginner’s Playbook, and it’s a game-changer if you're serious about leveling up this season.
Download the free Playbook here → https://ntsports.win/playbook
🧠 NT Sports Betting Library
Looking to level up your strategy? We’ve curated our favorite books, podcasts, and tools for bettors of all levels.
📚 Check it out → https://ntsports.win/betting-library
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Thanks for being part of the NT Sports community. Let’s stay sharp, stay disciplined, and most importantly...
Good bets. Good times.
Cheers.
— Nate